Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

301.22 – 299.8

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

236 – 344

Prediction missed · off by 54.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 557.6 ±13.7

5590Alumiboti

Season APEX 149.8Event APEX 49.26Rank 23Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 86

6463Robotic Reapers

Season APEX 65Event APEX -17.94Rank 51Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

1796RoboTigers

Season APEX 342.8Event APEX 269.9Rank 1Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 646.7 ±10.4

3181Pittsford Panthers

Season APEX 233Event APEX 156.09Rank 19Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9545Caracal Robotics

Season APEX 192.5Event APEX 55.72Rank 11Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6436NARBULUT PARS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 221.2Event APEX 87.99Rank 10Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5590, 6463, 1796

/ 100 compat

Projected

301.2 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 5590, 6463, 1796

Auto

54.1 18%

Teleop

175.3 59%

Endgame

65.3 22%

Strengths

· 1796 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3181, 9545, 6436

/ 100 compat

Projected

299.8 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3181, 9545, 6436

Auto

63.7 22%

Teleop

161.7 56%

Endgame

62.6 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.83 · Blue 1.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score301.2pts

Blue projected score299.8pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 1.4
Score range: 263–338
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 580 vs event baseline 206.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

557.6Season APEX646.7

54.1Auto63.7

175.3Teleop161.7

65.3Endgame62.6

82Consistency107

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	34
teleop	137	177
endgame	57	128
foul	0	5
total	236	344

Result

Final score

236 – 344

Prediction missed · off by 54.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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