Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

237.36 – 161.73

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

216 – 227

Prediction missed · off by 43.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 313.5 ±13.9

6300The Northwoodians

Season APEX 82.3Event APEX 36.08Rank 56Record 1-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

3173IgKnighters

Season APEX 154.2Event APEX 167.01Rank 8Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

578Fairport Robotics

Season APEX 77Event APEX 34.27Rank 57Record 0-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 367.3 ±17.7

7504CyBearBots

Season APEX 128.6Event APEX 34.06Rank 18Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 92

6621Artemis

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 104.8Rank 37Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5149TroyBotics

Provisional

Season APEX 116.8Event APEX 22.87Rank 27Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6300, 3173, 578

/ 100 compat

Projected

237.4 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 6300, 3173, 578

Auto

26.2 11%

Teleop

143.3 61%

Endgame

66.1 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7504, 6621, 5149

/ 100 compat

Projected

161.7 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 7504, 6621, 5149

Auto

6.9 4%

Teleop

93.3 58%

Endgame

61.8 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.12 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score237.4pts

Blue projected score161.7pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 75.6
Score range: 125–274
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 443 vs event baseline 205.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

313.5Season APEX367.3

26.2Auto6.9

143.3Teleop93.3

66.1Endgame61.8

116Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	44
teleop	124	156
endgame	78	27
foul	0	0
total	216	227

Result

Final score

216 – 227

Prediction missed · off by 43.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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