Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

189.51 – 184.09

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

117 – 160

Prediction missed · off by 48.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 373.9 ±15.2

10582The Technochauns

Season APEX 129.2Event APEX 101.6Rank 42Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 85

20The Rocketeers

Season APEX 120.3Event APEX 65.34Rank 43Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

10604Demirören Robotics

Season APEX 124.4Event APEX 22.57Rank 46Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 421.3 ±15

3003TAN(X)

Season APEX 148.1Event APEX 86.59Rank 17Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 86

191X-CATS

Season APEX 118.3Event APEX 1.71Rank 13Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 91

10413Flux Robotics

Season APEX 154.9Event APEX 95.79Rank 16Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10582, 20, 10604

/ 100 compat

Projected

189.5 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10582, 20, 10604

Auto

21.4 12%

Teleop

106.8 58%

Endgame

56.2 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3003, 191, 10413

/ 100 compat

Projected

184.1 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 3003, 191, 10413

Auto

37.5 21%

Teleop

89.3 49%

Endgame

54.8 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score189.5pts

Blue projected score184.1pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 79%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 5.4
Score range: 147–227
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 277 vs event baseline 207.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

373.9Season APEX421.3

21.4Auto37.5

106.8Teleop89.3

56.2Endgame54.8

41Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	35
teleop	49	87
endgame	49	38
foul	0	0
total	117	160

Result

Final score

117 – 160

Prediction missed · off by 48.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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