Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

106.46 – 296.46

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

125 – 314

Prediction correct · off by 18 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 344.4 ±18.2

4601Circuit Birds

Season APEX 129.6Event APEX 60.82Rank 29Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

7031Duanesburg Jr./Sr. High School

Provisional

Season APEX 132.7Event APEX 24.63Rank 30Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

9194Gemin√-1s

Season APEX 82.1Event APEX 21.01Rank 52Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 553.5 ±15.5

229Division By Zero

Provisional

Season APEX 74Event APEX -19.25Rank 54Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

5736Kingsmen Robotics

Season APEX 282.2Event APEX 180.81Rank 3Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2053Southern Tier Robotics

Season APEX 197.3Event APEX 134.9Rank 20Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4601, 7031, 9194

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.5 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4601, 7031, 9194

Auto

28.1 31%

Teleop

55.4 60%

Endgame

8.2 9%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 229, 5736, 2053

/ 100 compat

Projected

296.5 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 229, 5736, 2053

Auto

68.2 24%

Teleop

143.7 50%

Endgame

75.5 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.94 · Blue 2.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score106.5pts

Blue projected score296.5pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -190
Score range: 69–333
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 439 vs event baseline 206.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

344.4Season APEX553.5

28.1Auto68.2

55.4Teleop143.7

8.2Endgame75.5

76Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	97
teleop	43	175
endgame	31	42
foul	20	0
total	125	314

Result

Final score

125 – 314

Prediction correct · off by 18 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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