Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

247.53 – 88.59

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

289 – 50

Prediction correct · off by 40 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 509.9 ±14.1

4122Ossining OBOTS

Season APEX 233.2Event APEX 115.44Rank 12Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7504CyBearBots

Season APEX 128.6Event APEX 58.31Rank 18Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 92

3003TAN(X)

Season APEX 148.1Event APEX 73.78Rank 17Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 86

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 298.3 ±18.2

250The Dynamos

Season APEX 43.7Event APEX -16.61Rank 60Record 0-8-0Status establishedConfidence 88

7031Duanesburg Jr./Sr. High School

Provisional

Season APEX 132.7Event APEX 51.27Rank 30Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

1559Devil Tech

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 53.93Rank 39Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4122, 7504, 3003

/ 100 compat

Projected

247.5 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 4122, 7504, 3003

Auto

42.5 17%

Teleop

122.1 50%

Endgame

80.3 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 78%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 250, 7031, 1559

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.6 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 250, 7031, 1559

Auto

27.1 32%

Teleop

40.3 48%

Endgame

16.9 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 78%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.63 · Blue 0.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score247.5pts

Blue projected score88.6pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 78%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 158.9
Score range: 48–289
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 339 vs event baseline 229.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

509.9Season APEX298.3

42.5Auto27.1

122.1Teleop40.3

80.3Endgame16.9

57Consistency94

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	12
teleop	180	25
endgame	76	13
foul	0	0
total	289	50

Result

Final score

289 – 50

Prediction correct · off by 40 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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