Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

27.66 – 94.48

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

90 – 154

Prediction correct · off by 60.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 283 ±15.6

7718HVPA Dragons

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX 17.25Rank 47Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

6300The Northwoodians

Season APEX 82.3Event APEX 16.64Rank 56Record 1-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

3624Soaring Colts

Season APEX 111.8Event APEX -6.23Rank 49Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 422 ±14.5

5590Alumiboti

Season APEX 149.8Event APEX 34.24Rank 23Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 86

271Mechanical Marauders

Season APEX 147.8Event APEX 43.27Rank 31Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

10604Demirören Robotics

Season APEX 124.4Event APEX 16.97Rank 46Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7718, 6300, 3624

/ 100 compat

Projected

27.7 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 7718, 6300, 3624

Auto

2.1 10%

Teleop

11.8 57%

Endgame

6.7 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5590, 271, 10604

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.5 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 5590, 271, 10604

Auto

19.4 22%

Teleop

37.2 42%

Endgame

31.1 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.24 · Blue 2.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score27.7pts

Blue projected score94.5pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -66.8
Score range: -10–132
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 244 vs event baseline 209.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

283Season APEX422

2.1Auto19.4

11.8Teleop37.2

6.7Endgame31.1

79Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	15
teleop	51	97
endgame	31	37
foul	0	5
total	90	154

Result

Final score

90 – 154

Prediction correct · off by 60.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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