Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

173.6 – 202.96

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

233 – 288

Prediction correct · off by 72.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 440.7 ±14.1

1559Devil Tech

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 48.19Rank 39Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

2053Southern Tier Robotics

Season APEX 197.3Event APEX 124.25Rank 20Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7605ASTRO

Season APEX 121.5Event APEX 1.16Rank 28Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 365.9 ±16.8

10202NOVATRON

Season APEX 137.7Event APEX 68.75Rank 25Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3173IgKnighters

Season APEX 154.2Event APEX 159.48Rank 8Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

229Division By Zero

Provisional

Season APEX 74Event APEX -25.27Rank 54Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1559, 2053, 7605

/ 100 compat

Projected

173.6 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 1559, 2053, 7605

Auto

19.2 12%

Teleop

96.0 58%

Endgame

49.5 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10202, 3173, 229

/ 100 compat

Projected

203 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10202, 3173, 229

Auto

28.2 15%

Teleop

123.8 65%

Endgame

39.9 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.61 · Blue 1.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score173.6pts

Blue projected score203pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 74%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -29.4
Score range: 137–240
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 521 vs event baseline 207.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

440.7Season APEX365.9

19.2Auto28.2

96Teleop123.8

49.5Endgame39.9

99Consistency127

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	49
teleop	127	167
endgame	75	67
foul	0	5
total	233	288

Result

Final score

233 – 288

Prediction correct · off by 72.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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