Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

291.99 – 395.6

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

458 – 472

Prediction correct · off by 121.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 632.8 ±12.4

6436NARBULUT PARS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 221.2Event APEX 50.09Rank 10Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

870TEAM R. I. C. E.

Season APEX 291.3Event APEX 212.88Rank 4Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

20The Rocketeers

Season APEX 120.3Event APEX 29.02Rank 43Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 715.3 ±12.4

5736Kingsmen Robotics

Season APEX 282.2Event APEX 168.22Rank 3Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2340Mercy Robotics-Xcentrics

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 85.48Rank 24Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

4122Ossining OBOTS

Season APEX 233.2Event APEX 141.9Rank 12Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6436, 870, 20

/ 100 compat

Projected

292 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 6436, 870, 20

Auto

60.9 21%

Teleop

168.1 58%

Endgame

60.5 21%

Strengths

· 870 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5736, 2340, 4122

/ 100 compat

Projected

395.6 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 5736, 2340, 4122

Auto

75.4 20%

Teleop

196.1 52%

Endgame

103.5 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.12 · Blue 2.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score292pts

Blue projected score395.6pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 76%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -103.6
Score range: 256–432
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 930 vs event baseline 201.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

632.8Season APEX715.3

60.9Auto75.4

168.1Teleop196.1

60.5Endgame103.5

74Consistency131

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	94	126
teleop	225	199
endgame	119	142
foul	20	5
total	458	472

Result

Final score

458 – 472

Prediction correct · off by 121.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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