Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

183.38 – 197.44

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

202 – 238

Prediction correct · off by 29.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 394.5 ±18.2

3003TAN(X)

Season APEX 148.1Event APEX 94.39Rank 17Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 86

5149TroyBotics

Provisional

Season APEX 116.8Event APEX 17.73Rank 27Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

4601Circuit Birds

Season APEX 129.6Event APEX 71.26Rank 29Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 542.5 ±12.9

3044Team 0xBE4

Season APEX 259.2Event APEX 113.87Rank 2Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5881TVHS Dragons

Season APEX 90.8Event APEX 38.35Rank 44Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

9545Caracal Robotics

Season APEX 192.5Event APEX 45.22Rank 11Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3003, 5149, 4601

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.4 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 3003, 5149, 4601

Auto

41.4 23%

Teleop

97.8 53%

Endgame

43.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 83%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3044, 5881, 9545

/ 100 compat

Projected

197.4 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 3044, 5881, 9545

Auto

57.4 30%

Teleop

112.3 59%

Endgame

19.5 10%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 83%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.8 · Blue 1.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score183.4pts

Blue projected score197.4pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 83%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -14.1
Score range: 147–233
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 440 vs event baseline 198.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

394.5Season APEX542.5

41.4Auto57.4

97.8Teleop112.3

43.7Endgame19.5

93Consistency186

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	37
teleop	117	136
endgame	47	65
foul	15	0
total	202	238

Result

Final score

202 – 238

Prediction correct · off by 29.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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