Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

107.67 – 268.16

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

74 – 298

Prediction correct · off by 31.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 254.4 ±15

578Fairport Robotics

Season APEX 77Event APEX 35.29Rank 57Record 0-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9194Gemin√-1s

Season APEX 82.1Event APEX 30.06Rank 52Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

4930Electric Mayhem

Season APEX 95.3Event APEX 42.32Rank 33Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 503.3 ±16

263Aftershock

Season APEX 175.6Event APEX 56.96Rank 41Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10413Flux Robotics

Season APEX 154.9Event APEX 97.88Rank 16Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1493Falcons

Provisional

Season APEX 172.8Event APEX 113.32Rank 26Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 578, 9194, 4930

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.7 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 578, 9194, 4930

Auto

22.6 22%

Teleop

35.8 35%

Endgame

43.1 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 263, 10413, 1493

/ 100 compat

Projected

268.2 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 263, 10413, 1493

Auto

49.4 19%

Teleop

157.3 59%

Endgame

60.3 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.94 · Blue 2.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score107.7pts

Blue projected score268.2pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -160.5
Score range: 72–304
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 372 vs event baseline 199.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

254.4Season APEX503.3

22.6Auto49.4

35.8Teleop157.3

43.1Endgame60.3

138Consistency73

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	62
teleop	33	168
endgame	15	68
foul	0	0
total	74	298

Result

Final score

74 – 298

Prediction correct · off by 31.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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