Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

270.84 – 203.13

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

254 – 174

Prediction correct · off by 23 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 458.3 ±12.8

8222The Argonauts

Season APEX 97Event APEX 38.77Rank 34Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

1405Finney Falcons

Season APEX 188.4Event APEX 168.35Rank 5Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 95

1880Warriors of East Harlem

Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 63.72Rank 6Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 398.1 ±12.2

11010Bobcats

Season APEX 69Event APEX 28.56Rank 38Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3181Pittsford Panthers

Season APEX 233Event APEX 166.08Rank 19Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

806The Brooklyn Blacksmiths

Season APEX 96.1Event APEX 8.49Rank 45Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8222, 1405, 1880

/ 100 compat

Projected

270.8 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 8222, 1405, 1880

Auto

24.9 9%

Teleop

201.2 74%

Endgame

44.3 16%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11010, 3181, 806

/ 100 compat

Projected

203.1 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 11010, 3181, 806

Auto

28.6 14%

Teleop

126.5 60%

Endgame

54.8 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.11 · Blue 1.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score270.8pts

Blue projected score203.1pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 67.7
Score range: 167–307
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 428 vs event baseline 198.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

458.3Season APEX398.1

24.9Auto28.6

201.2Teleop126.5

44.3Endgame54.8

57Consistency97

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	54
teleop	140	120
endgame	78	0
foul	0	0
total	254	174

Result

Final score

254 – 174

Prediction correct · off by 23 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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