Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

195.7 – 210.34

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

248 – 203

Prediction missed · off by 29.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 441.6 ±13.4

3624Soaring Colts

Season APEX 111.8Event APEX 14.2Rank 49Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

3173IgKnighters

Season APEX 154.2Event APEX 129.6Rank 8Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

263Aftershock

Season APEX 175.6Event APEX 51.9Rank 41Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 438.7 ±15.6

9624Dynamiques 9624

Season APEX 109.2Event APEX 48.31Rank 50Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

4601Circuit Birds

Season APEX 129.6Event APEX 45.04Rank 29Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

2340Mercy Robotics-Xcentrics

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 116.99Rank 24Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3624, 3173, 263

/ 100 compat

Projected

195.7 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3624, 3173, 263

Auto

39.3 21%

Teleop

114.1 60%

Endgame

38.3 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9624, 4601, 2340

/ 100 compat

Projected

210.3 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9624, 4601, 2340

Auto

38.4 19%

Teleop

116.3 56%

Endgame

51.4 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.59 · Blue 1.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score195.7pts

Blue projected score210.3pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 80%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -14.6
Score range: 155–251
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 451 vs event baseline 229.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

441.6Season APEX438.7

39.3Auto38.4

114.1Teleop116.3

38.3Endgame51.4

52Consistency94

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	41
teleop	156	124
endgame	61	38
foul	5	0
total	248	203

Result

Final score

248 – 203

Prediction missed · off by 29.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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