Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

240.27 – 68.05

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

334 – 124

Prediction correct · off by 74.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 609.6 ±13.6

10582The Technochauns

Season APEX 129.2Event APEX 114.29Rank 42Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 85

3044Team 0xBE4

Season APEX 259.2Event APEX 95.66Rank 2Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6436NARBULUT PARS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 221.2Event APEX 30.32Rank 10Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 324.5 ±15.6

5881TVHS Dragons

Season APEX 90.8Event APEX 25.92Rank 44Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

1559Devil Tech

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 44.48Rank 39Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

3624Soaring Colts

Season APEX 111.8Event APEX -2.35Rank 49Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10582, 3044, 6436

/ 100 compat

Projected

240.3 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 10582, 3044, 6436

Auto

40.1 16%

Teleop

146.9 60%

Endgame

56.8 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5881, 1559, 3624

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.1 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 5881, 1559, 3624

Auto

9.5 14%

Teleop

41.8 64%

Endgame

14.3 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.52 · Blue 0.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score240.3pts

Blue projected score68.1pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 172.2
Score range: 33–275
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 458 vs event baseline 195.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

609.6Season APEX324.5

40.1Auto9.5

146.9Teleop41.8

56.8Endgame14.3

88Consistency123

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	40
teleop	177	65
endgame	87	9
foul	10	10
total	334	124

Result

Final score

334 – 124

Prediction correct · off by 74.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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