Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

252.84 – 158.87

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

345 – 215

Prediction correct · off by 74.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 514.8 ±14.1

4122Ossining OBOTS

Season APEX 233.2Event APEX 102Rank 12Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2791Shaker Robotics

Season APEX 152Event APEX 83.37Rank 22Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 88

4601Circuit Birds

Season APEX 129.6Event APEX 67.47Rank 29Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 341.1 ±14.5

10413Flux Robotics

Season APEX 154.9Event APEX 98.57Rank 16Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

578Fairport Robotics

Season APEX 77Event APEX 14.94Rank 57Record 0-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9624Dynamiques 9624

Season APEX 109.2Event APEX 45.36Rank 50Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4122, 2791, 4601

/ 100 compat

Projected

252.8 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4122, 2791, 4601

Auto

40.5 15%

Teleop

185.2 71%

Endgame

36.1 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 78%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10413, 578, 9624

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.9 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 10413, 578, 9624

Auto

14.9 10%

Teleop

108.1 70%

Endgame

31.8 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 78%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.4 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score252.8pts

Blue projected score158.9pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 78%, blue 74%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 94
Score range: 124–288
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 560 vs event baseline 192.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

514.8Season APEX341.1

40.5Auto14.9

185.2Teleop108.1

36.1Endgame31.8

125Consistency78

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	31
teleop	201	114
endgame	63	70
foul	30	0
total	345	215

Result

Final score

345 – 215

Prediction correct · off by 74.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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