Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

122.96 – 138.02

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

207 – 194

Prediction missed · off by 70 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 421.1 ±13.5

9545Caracal Robotics

Season APEX 192.5Event APEX 47.04Rank 11Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

271Mechanical Marauders

Season APEX 147.8Event APEX 49.06Rank 31Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

6648MechaSpartans

Season APEX 80.8Event APEX 26.86Rank 35Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 400.8 ±19.8

7031Duanesburg Jr./Sr. High School

Provisional

Season APEX 132.7Event APEX -6.1Rank 30Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

1493Falcons

Provisional

Season APEX 172.8Event APEX 106.88Rank 26Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4930Electric Mayhem

Season APEX 95.3Event APEX 37.24Rank 33Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9545, 271, 6648

/ 100 compat

Projected

123 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9545, 271, 6648

Auto

25.4 21%

Teleop

65.6 53%

Endgame

32.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7031, 1493, 4930

/ 100 compat

Projected

138 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 7031, 1493, 4930

Auto

38.6 28%

Teleop

85.6 61%

Endgame

15.5 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.57 · Blue 1.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score123pts

Blue projected score138pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 73%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -15.1
Score range: 88–173
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 401 vs event baseline 192.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

421.1Season APEX400.8

25.4Auto38.6

65.6Teleop85.6

32.1Endgame15.5

101Consistency117

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	34
teleop	71	113
endgame	67	47
foul	45	0
total	207	194

Result

Final score

207 – 194

Prediction missed · off by 70 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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