Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

101.6 – 346.25

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

65 – 362

Prediction correct · off by 26.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 369.5 ±17.3

5149TroyBotics

Provisional

Season APEX 116.8Event APEX 40.47Rank 27Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

533The PSIcotics

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX -3.05Rank 58Record 1-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

263Aftershock

Season APEX 175.6Event APEX 64.18Rank 41Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 612.4 ±13.7

3003TAN(X)

Season APEX 148.1Event APEX 104.16Rank 17Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 86

7605ASTRO

Season APEX 121.5Event APEX -1.08Rank 28Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

1796RoboTigers

Season APEX 342.8Event APEX 243.17Rank 1Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5149, 533, 263

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.6 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 5149, 533, 263

Auto

18.4 18%

Teleop

52.9 53%

Endgame

29.1 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3003, 7605, 1796

/ 100 compat

Projected

346.3 pts

~2.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 3003, 7605, 1796

Auto

45.5 13%

Teleop

210.4 60%

Endgame

92.8 27%

Strengths

· 1796 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.67 · Blue 2.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score101.6pts

Blue projected score346.3pts

Red win probability5%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 73%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -244.6
Score range: 67–381
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 427 vs event baseline 191.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

369.5Season APEX612.4

18.4Auto45.5

52.9Teleop210.4

29.1Endgame92.8

195Consistency92

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	62
teleop	14	201
endgame	22	99
foul	0	0
total	65	362

Result

Final score

65 – 362

Prediction correct · off by 26.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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