Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

174.92 – 158.94

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

176 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 1.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 443 ±14.1

287Floyd Robotics

Season APEX 242.6Event APEX 118.97Rank 9Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

191X-CATS

Season APEX 118.3Event APEX 19.59Rank 13Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 91

9194Gemin√-1s

Season APEX 82.1Event APEX 36.36Rank 52Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 333.6 ±15

7718HVPA Dragons

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX 29.35Rank 47Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

6621Artemis

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 103.08Rank 37Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

677Murphy's Outlaws

Season APEX 122.8Event APEX 26.51Rank 32Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 287, 191, 9194

/ 100 compat

Projected

174.9 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 287, 191, 9194

Auto

34.2 20%

Teleop

99.4 59%

Endgame

34.4 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7718, 6621, 677

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.9 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 7718, 6621, 677

Auto

5.8 4%

Teleop

81.5 57%

Endgame

54.6 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.8 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score174.9pts

Blue projected score158.9pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 16
Score range: 124–210
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 333 vs event baseline 192.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

443Season APEX333.6

34.2Auto5.8

99.4Teleop81.5

34.4Endgame54.6

132Consistency65

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	22
teleop	68	93
endgame	50	42
foul	15	0
total	176	157

Result

Final score

176 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 1.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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