Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

125.18 – 209

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

351 – 294

Prediction missed · off by 155.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 445.3 ±13.5

3171HURRICANES

Season APEX 74.6Event APEX 3.48Rank 53Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 86

3181Pittsford Panthers

Season APEX 233Event APEX 120.83Rank 19Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10202NOVATRON

Season APEX 137.7Event APEX 0.87Rank 25Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 399.1 ±12.9

870TEAM R. I. C. E.

Season APEX 291.3Event APEX 186.17Rank 4Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11010Bobcats

Season APEX 69Event APEX 12.96Rank 38Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7903Tigers

Season APEX 38.8Event APEX 9.87Rank 59Record 0-8-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3171, 3181, 10202

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.2 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3171, 3181, 10202

Auto

31.7 27%

Teleop

76.3 65%

Endgame

8.7 7%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 870, 11010, 7903

/ 100 compat

Projected

209 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 870, 11010, 7903

Auto

43.2 21%

Teleop

122.9 59%

Endgame

43.0 21%

Strengths

· 870 anchors offense

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.1 · Blue 2.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score125.2pts

Blue projected score209pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -83.8
Score range: 91–243
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 645 vs event baseline 188.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

445.3Season APEX399.1

31.7Auto43.2

76.3Teleop122.9

8.7Endgame43

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	79
teleop	200	139
endgame	101	76
foul	0	0
total	351	294

Result

Final score

351 – 294

Prediction missed · off by 155.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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