Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

295.12 – 156.91

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

261 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 50 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 598.8 ±12.2

287Floyd Robotics

Season APEX 242.6Event APEX 171.64Rank 9Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3044Team 0xBE4

Season APEX 259.2Event APEX 91.31Rank 2Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8222The Argonauts

Season APEX 97Event APEX 32.17Rank 34Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 278.2 ±13.9

4121Viking Robotics

Season APEX 129.9Event APEX 97.78Rank 48Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6806Mineola Wild Reds

Season APEX 71.3Event APEX 20.7Rank 40Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

578Fairport Robotics

Season APEX 77Event APEX 38.43Rank 57Record 0-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 287, 3044, 8222

/ 100 compat

Projected

295.1 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 287, 3044, 8222

Auto

46.4 17%

Teleop

175.0 62%

Endgame

59.7 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4121, 6806, 578

/ 100 compat

Projected

156.9 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4121, 6806, 578

Auto

19.6 14%

Teleop

76.5 53%

Endgame

48.3 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.41 · Blue 0.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score295.1pts

Blue projected score156.9pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 138.2
Score range: 116–336
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 352 vs event baseline 229.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

598.8Season APEX278.2

46.4Auto19.6

175Teleop76.5

59.7Endgame48.3

36Consistency87

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	18
teleop	177	40
endgame	34	23
foul	0	10
total	261	91

Result

Final score

261 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 50 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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