Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

111.35 – 165.32

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

235 – 89

Prediction missed · off by 100 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 613.6 ±14.5

3044Team 0xBE4

Season APEX 259.2Event APEX 62.22Rank 2Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2340Mercy Robotics-Xcentrics

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 46.41Rank 24Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

7759Bulldog Bytes

Season APEX 154.5Event APEX 2.72Rank 15Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 331.8 ±18.7

7504CyBearBots

Season APEX 128.6Event APEX 57.39Rank 18Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 92

229Division By Zero

Provisional

Season APEX 74Event APEX -26.47Rank 54Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

10582The Technochauns

Season APEX 129.2Event APEX 134.4Rank 42Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 85

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3044, 2340, 7759

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.4 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3044, 2340, 7759

Auto

23.6 22%

Teleop

65.8 61%

Endgame

18.6 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7504, 229, 10582

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.3 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 7504, 229, 10582

Auto

20.9 12%

Teleop

110.5 65%

Endgame

39.7 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.59 · Blue 1.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score111.4pts

Blue projected score165.3pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 75%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -54
Score range: 78–198
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 324 vs event baseline 185.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

613.6Season APEX331.8

23.6Auto20.9

65.8Teleop110.5

18.6Endgame39.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	10
teleop	124	46
endgame	67	28
foul	5	5
total	235	89

Result

Final score

235 – 89

Prediction missed · off by 100 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree