Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

245.87 – 43.94

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

228 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 23.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 551.1 ±13.5

2791Shaker Robotics

Season APEX 152Event APEX 108.89Rank 22Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 88

1591Greece Gladiators

Season APEX 206.6Event APEX 107.58Rank 7Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

9545Caracal Robotics

Season APEX 192.5Event APEX 29.4Rank 11Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 312.9 ±15

3624Soaring Colts

Season APEX 111.8Event APEX 0.38Rank 49Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

6648MechaSpartans

Season APEX 80.8Event APEX 23.73Rank 35Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

20The Rocketeers

Season APEX 120.3Event APEX 19.83Rank 43Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2791, 1591, 9545

/ 100 compat

Projected

245.9 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2791, 1591, 9545

Auto

51.5 21%

Teleop

146.8 60%

Endgame

44.6 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3624, 6648, 20

/ 100 compat

Projected

43.9 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 3624, 6648, 20

Auto

-6.1 0%

Teleop

26.5 66%

Endgame

19.9 49%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.65 · Blue 0.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score245.9pts

Blue projected score43.9pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 201.9
Score range: 10–280
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 301 vs event baseline 189.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

551.1Season APEX312.9

51.5Auto-6.1

146.8Teleop26.5

44.6Endgame19.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	9
teleop	145	44
endgame	23	20
foul	0	0
total	228	73

Result

Final score

228 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 23.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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