Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

224.14 – 282.07

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

143 – 352

Prediction correct · off by 75.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 349.5 ±13.9

578Fairport Robotics

Season APEX 77Event APEX 70.82Rank 57Record 0-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10604Demirören Robotics

Season APEX 124.4Event APEX 41.78Rank 46Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3003TAN(X)

Season APEX 148.1Event APEX 111.54Rank 17Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 86

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 534.2 ±13

1796RoboTigers

Season APEX 342.8Event APEX 214.08Rank 1Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

806The Brooklyn Blacksmiths

Season APEX 96.1Event APEX 34.91Rank 45Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4930Electric Mayhem

Season APEX 95.3Event APEX 33.08Rank 33Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 578, 10604, 3003

/ 100 compat

Projected

224.1 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 578, 10604, 3003

Auto

45.8 20%

Teleop

129.8 58%

Endgame

48.5 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 76%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1796, 806, 4930

/ 100 compat

Projected

282.1 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 1796, 806, 4930

Auto

58.2 21%

Teleop

170.9 61%

Endgame

52.9 19%

Strengths

· 1796 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 76%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.48 · Blue 2.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score224.1pts

Blue projected score282.1pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 76%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -57.9
Score range: 190–316
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 495 vs event baseline 187.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

349.5Season APEX534.2

45.8Auto58.2

129.8Teleop170.9

48.5Endgame52.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	55
teleop	68	208
endgame	58	89
foul	0	0
total	143	352

Result

Final score

143 – 352

Prediction correct · off by 75.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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