Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

177.17 – 135.38

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

294 – 241

Prediction correct · off by 111.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 445.4 ±12.9

191X-CATS

Season APEX 118.3Event APEX -8.73Rank 13Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 91

1880Warriors of East Harlem

Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 58.99Rank 6Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3173IgKnighters

Season APEX 154.2Event APEX 126.91Rank 8Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 463.1 ±14.1

271Mechanical Marauders

Season APEX 147.8Event APEX 10.52Rank 31Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

9194Gemin√-1s

Season APEX 82.1Event APEX 49.42Rank 52Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

4122Ossining OBOTS

Season APEX 233.2Event APEX 75.44Rank 12Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 191, 1880, 3173

/ 100 compat

Projected

177.2 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 191, 1880, 3173

Auto

36.3 21%

Teleop

114.4 67%

Endgame

20.1 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 271, 9194, 4122

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.4 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 271, 9194, 4122

Auto

15.9 12%

Teleop

75.2 57%

Endgame

40.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score177.2pts

Blue projected score135.4pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 41.8
Score range: 102–210
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 535 vs event baseline 183.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

445.4Season APEX463.1

36.3Auto15.9

114.4Teleop75.2

20.1Endgame40.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	20
teleop	187	122
endgame	70	79
foul	0	20
total	294	241

Result

Final score

294 – 241

Prediction correct · off by 111.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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