Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

227.46 – 165.34

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

203 – 320

Prediction missed · off by 89.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 398.8 ±19.8

1493Falcons

Provisional

Season APEX 172.8Event APEX 119.05Rank 26Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9624Dynamiques 9624

Season APEX 109.2Event APEX 62.5Rank 50Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

5149TroyBotics

Provisional

Season APEX 116.8Event APEX 45.91Rank 27Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 528.8 ±12.4

2053Southern Tier Robotics

Season APEX 197.3Event APEX 91.85Rank 20Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7718HVPA Dragons

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX -7.13Rank 47Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

287Floyd Robotics

Season APEX 242.6Event APEX 80.62Rank 9Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1493, 9624, 5149

/ 100 compat

Projected

227.5 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 1493, 9624, 5149

Auto

41.5 18%

Teleop

139.5 61%

Endgame

47.7 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 76%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2053, 7718, 287

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.3 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 2053, 7718, 287

Auto

40.0 25%

Teleop

99.8 64%

Endgame

17.3 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 76%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.17 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score227.5pts

Blue projected score165.3pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 76%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 62.1
Score range: 133–259
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 523 vs event baseline 180.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

398.8Season APEX528.8

41.5Auto40

139.5Teleop99.8

47.7Endgame17.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	8
teleop	130	203
endgame	40	89
foul	0	20
total	203	320

Result

Final score

203 – 320

Prediction missed · off by 89.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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