Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

29.47 – 158.17

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

46 – 164

Prediction correct · off by 11.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 289.4 ±15.6

533The PSIcotics

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX -19.58Rank 58Record 1-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

7605ASTRO

Season APEX 121.5Event APEX 18.67Rank 28Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

5881TVHS Dragons

Season APEX 90.8Event APEX 30.38Rank 44Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 351.6 ±17.2

7031Duanesburg Jr./Sr. High School

Provisional

Season APEX 132.7Event APEX 3.4Rank 30Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

8222The Argonauts

Season APEX 97Event APEX 70.74Rank 34Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

6621Artemis

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 84.03Rank 37Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 533, 7605, 5881

/ 100 compat

Projected

29.5 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 533, 7605, 5881

Auto

4.6 16%

Teleop

12.7 43%

Endgame

12.3 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7031, 8222, 6621

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.2 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 7031, 8222, 6621

Auto

23.4 16%

Teleop

82.1 54%

Endgame

45.3 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.95 · Blue 2.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score29.5pts

Blue projected score158.2pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -128.7
Score range: -4–191
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 210 vs event baseline 183.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

289.4Season APEX351.6

4.6Auto23.4

12.7Teleop82.1

12.3Endgame45.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	15
teleop	22	104
endgame	0	45
foul	0	0
total	46	164

Result

Final score

46 – 164

Prediction correct · off by 11.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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