Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

55.04 – 119.07

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

60 – 150

Prediction correct · off by 17.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 400.4 ±14.1

6463Robotic Reapers

Season APEX 65Event APEX -20.38Rank 51Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

6436NARBULUT PARS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 221.2Event APEX 4.76Rank 10Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5016Huntington Robotics

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 70.66Rank 36Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 395.9 ±15

4601Circuit Birds

Season APEX 129.6Event APEX 46.44Rank 29Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

10202NOVATRON

Season APEX 137.7Event APEX 17Rank 25Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7504CyBearBots

Season APEX 128.6Event APEX 55.63Rank 18Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6463, 6436, 5016

/ 100 compat

Projected

55 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 6463, 6436, 5016

Auto

5.8 11%

Teleop

45.6 84%

Endgame

2.8 5%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4601, 10202, 7504

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.1 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4601, 10202, 7504

Auto

25.0 22%

Teleop

83.5 73%

Endgame

5.4 5%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.3 · Blue 2.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score55pts

Blue projected score119.1pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -64
Score range: 21–153
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 210 vs event baseline 188.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

400.4Season APEX395.9

5.8Auto25

45.6Teleop83.5

2.8Endgame5.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	13
teleop	38	104
endgame	11	33
foul	0	0
total	60	150

Result

Final score

60 – 150

Prediction correct · off by 17.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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