Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

135.01 – 129.84

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

556 – 193

Prediction correct · off by 242.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 631.7 ±13.5

1405Finney Falcons

Season APEX 188.4Event APEX 60.5Rank 5Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2791Shaker Robotics

Season APEX 152Event APEX -2.81Rank 22Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 88

870TEAM R. I. C. E.

Season APEX 291.3Event APEX 77.32Rank 4Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 404 ±14.7

6300The Northwoodians

Season APEX 82.3Event APEX -0.24Rank 56Record 1-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

9545Caracal Robotics

Season APEX 192.5Event APEX 18.53Rank 11Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10582The Technochauns

Season APEX 129.2Event APEX 111.55Rank 42Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 85

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1405, 2791, 870

/ 100 compat

Projected

135 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 1405, 2791, 870

Auto

36.1 27%

Teleop

86.2 64%

Endgame

12.3 9%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6300, 9545, 10582

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.8 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 6300, 9545, 10582

Auto

31.8 25%

Teleop

86.9 69%

Endgame

8.1 6%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.89 · Blue 1.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score135pts

Blue projected score129.8pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 5.2
Score range: 98–167
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 749 vs event baseline 178.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

631.7Season APEX404

36.1Auto31.8

86.2Teleop86.9

12.3Endgame8.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	86	40
teleop	350	103
endgame	115	50
foul	5	0
total	556	193

Result

Final score

556 – 193

Prediction correct · off by 242.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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