Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

99.01 – 155.75

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

291 – 255

Prediction missed · off by 145.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 469.9 ±15.9

5736Kingsmen Robotics

Season APEX 282.2Event APEX 51.19Rank 3Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10604Demirören Robotics

Season APEX 124.4Event APEX 34Rank 46Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10714RAMpage.AI

Provisional

Season APEX 63.3Event APEX 13.82Rank 55Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 390.8 ±12.8

6648MechaSpartans

Season APEX 80.8Event APEX 34Rank 35Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3181Pittsford Panthers

Season APEX 233Event APEX 96.38Rank 19Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

578Fairport Robotics

Season APEX 77Event APEX 25.37Rank 57Record 0-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5736, 10604, 10714

/ 100 compat

Projected

99 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 5736, 10604, 10714

Auto

25.1 27%

Teleop

55.0 60%

Endgame

11.5 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6648, 3181, 578

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.8 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 6648, 3181, 578

Auto

27.9 18%

Teleop

101.3 66%

Endgame

23.9 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.36 · Blue 2.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score99pts

Blue projected score155.8pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -56.7
Score range: 68–187
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 546 vs event baseline 172.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

469.9Season APEX390.8

25.1Auto27.9

55Teleop101.3

11.5Endgame23.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	85	15
teleop	151	159
endgame	55	76
foul	0	5
total	291	255

Result

Final score

291 – 255

Prediction missed · off by 145.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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