Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

170.35 – 162.68

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

222 – 295

Prediction missed · off by 92 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 310.9 ±14.5

9194Gemin√-1s

Season APEX 82.1Event APEX 67.14Rank 52Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

3171HURRICANES

Season APEX 74.6Event APEX -0.12Rank 53Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 86

3173IgKnighters

Season APEX 154.2Event APEX 103.33Rank 8Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 473.6 ±15

1591Greece Gladiators

Season APEX 206.6Event APEX 56.24Rank 7Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3003TAN(X)

Season APEX 148.1Event APEX 87.4Rank 17Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 86

1126SPARX

Season APEX 118.9Event APEX 19.04Rank 14Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9194, 3171, 3173

/ 100 compat

Projected

170.4 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 9194, 3171, 3173

Auto

26.1 16%

Teleop

116.9 70%

Endgame

24.0 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1591, 3003, 1126

/ 100 compat

Projected

162.7 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 1591, 3003, 1126

Auto

25.9 16%

Teleop

99.0 61%

Endgame

38.1 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.7 · Blue 1.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score170.4pts

Blue projected score162.7pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 75%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 7.7
Score range: 133–200
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 517 vs event baseline 167.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

310.9Season APEX473.6

26.1Auto25.9

116.9Teleop99

24Endgame38.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	57
teleop	105	171
endgame	49	67
foul	15	0
total	222	295

Result

Final score

222 – 295

Prediction missed · off by 92 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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