Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

237.91 – 207.71

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

21 – 228

Prediction missed · off by 118.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 487.1 ±14.5

424Rust Belt Robotics

Season APEX 220.8Event APEX 91.43Rank 21Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7759Bulldog Bytes

Season APEX 154.5Event APEX 71.05Rank 15Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 88

3624Soaring Colts

Season APEX 111.8Event APEX 75.43Rank 49Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 488.4 ±16.2

191X-CATS

Season APEX 118.3Event APEX 18.57Rank 13Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 91

1493Falcons

Provisional

Season APEX 172.8Event APEX 91.43Rank 26Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2053Southern Tier Robotics

Season APEX 197.3Event APEX 97.71Rank 20Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 424, 7759, 3624

/ 100 compat

Projected

237.9 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 424, 7759, 3624

Auto

39.0 16%

Teleop

166.7 70%

Endgame

31.7 13%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 191, 1493, 2053

/ 100 compat

Projected

207.7 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 191, 1493, 2053

Auto

41.7 20%

Teleop

126.3 61%

Endgame

39.7 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.96 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score237.9pts

Blue projected score207.7pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 30.2
Score range: 177–269
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 249 vs event baseline 170.1.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

487.1Season APEX488.4

39Auto41.7

166.7Teleop126.3

31.7Endgame39.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	50
teleop	3	133
endgame	2	45
foul	0	0
total	21	228

Result

Final score

21 – 228

Prediction missed · off by 118.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.