Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

10.97 – 46.11

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

47 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 23.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 312.6 ±18.2

229Division By Zero

Provisional

Season APEX 74Event APEX -27.91Rank 54Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

5881TVHS Dragons

Season APEX 90.8Event APEX 20.88Rank 44Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

271Mechanical Marauders

Season APEX 147.8Event APEX 18Rank 31Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 293.5 ±15

806The Brooklyn Blacksmiths

Season APEX 96.1Event APEX 53.14Rank 45Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

20The Rocketeers

Season APEX 120.3Event APEX 20.88Rank 43Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

533The PSIcotics

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX -27.91Rank 58Record 1-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 229, 5881, 271

/ 100 compat

Projected

11 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 229, 5881, 271

Auto

4.2 53%

Teleop

5.2 66%

Endgame

-1.5 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 806, 20, 533

/ 100 compat

Projected

46.1 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 806, 20, 533

Auto

20.2 54%

Teleop

24.1 64%

Endgame

-6.9 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score11pts

Blue projected score46.1pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -35.1
Score range: -21–78
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 104 vs event baseline 178.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

312.6Season APEX293.5

4.2Auto20.2

5.2Teleop24.1

-1.5Endgame-6.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	18
teleop	26	22
endgame	13	17
foul	0	0
total	47	57

Result

Final score

47 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 23.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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