Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

182.34 – 156.4

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

498 – 178

Prediction correct · off by 168.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 619.6 ±12.4

6621Artemis

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 8Rank 37Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1796RoboTigers

Season APEX 342.8Event APEX 116.17Rank 1Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10413Flux Robotics

Season APEX 154.9Event APEX 58.17Rank 16Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 418.8 ±15

8222The Argonauts

Season APEX 97Event APEX 68.24Rank 34Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

1559Devil Tech

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 31.77Rank 39Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

2340Mercy Robotics-Xcentrics

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 56.39Rank 24Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6621, 1796, 10413

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.3 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 6621, 1796, 10413

Auto

33.8 19%

Teleop

121.8 68%

Endgame

24.7 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8222, 1559, 2340

/ 100 compat

Projected

156.4 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 8222, 1559, 2340

Auto

31.6 20%

Teleop

104.7 67%

Endgame

20.1 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.03 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score182.3pts

Blue projected score156.4pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 72%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 25.9
Score range: 126–212
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 676 vs event baseline 165.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

619.6Season APEX418.8

33.8Auto31.6

121.8Teleop104.7

24.7Endgame20.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	64	23
teleop	302	64
endgame	132	71
foul	0	20
total	498	178

Result

Final score

498 – 178

Prediction correct · off by 168.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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