Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

109.14 – 89.43

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

172 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 35.7 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 452 ±14.5

6806Mineola Wild Reds

Season APEX 71.3Event APEX 26Rank 40Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

3044Team 0xBE4

Season APEX 259.2Event APEX 74.57Rank 2Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7605ASTRO

Season APEX 121.5Event APEX 8.57Rank 28Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 270.8 ±15.6

677Murphy's Outlaws

Season APEX 122.8Event APEX 22.86Rank 32Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

7903Tigers

Season APEX 38.8Event APEX 8.57Rank 59Record 0-8-0Status establishedConfidence 88

9624Dynamiques 9624

Season APEX 109.2Event APEX 58Rank 50Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6806, 3044, 7605

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.1 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 6806, 3044, 7605

Auto

26.0 24%

Teleop

64.0 60%

Endgame

16.3 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 677, 7903, 9624

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.4 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 677, 7903, 9624

Auto

21.7 25%

Teleop

49.7 57%

Endgame

15.2 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.87 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score109.1pts

Blue projected score89.4pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 19.7
Score range: 57–141
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 270 vs event baseline 179.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

452Season APEX270.8

26Auto21.7

64Teleop49.7

16.3Endgame15.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	30
teleop	86	47
endgame	64	21
foul	0	0
total	172	98

Result

Final score

172 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 35.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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