Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

89.61 – 89.61

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

119 – 235

Prediction missed · off by 87.4 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 357.2 ±13.9

10604Demirören Robotics

Season APEX 124.4Event APEX -Rank 46Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6648MechaSpartans

Season APEX 80.8Event APEX -Rank 35Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2791Shaker Robotics

Season APEX 152Event APEX -Rank 22Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 491.7 ±13.5

1405Finney Falcons

Season APEX 188.4Event APEX -Rank 5Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 95

6436NARBULUT PARS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 221.2Event APEX -Rank 10Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9194Gemin√-1s

Season APEX 82.1Event APEX -Rank 52Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10604, 6648, 2791

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.6 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10604, 6648, 2791

Auto

26.9 30%

Teleop

44.8 50%

Endgame

17.9 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 77%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1405, 6436, 9194

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.6 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 1405, 6436, 9194

Auto

26.9 30%

Teleop

44.8 50%

Endgame

17.9 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 77%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.83 · Blue 1.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score89.6pts

Blue projected score89.6pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 77%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0
Score range: 58–122
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 354 vs event baseline 179.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

357.2Season APEX491.7

-Auto-

-Teleop-

-Endgame-

-Consistency-

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	32
teleop	73	153
endgame	19	45
foul	0	5
total	119	235

Result

Final score

119 – 235

Prediction missed · off by 87.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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