Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

224.07 – 77.13

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

163 – 30

Prediction correct · off by 54.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 436.3 ±13.5

9545Caracal Robotics

Season APEX 192.5Event APEX 116.35Rank 11Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10413Flux Robotics

Season APEX 154.9Event APEX 103.16Rank 16Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7718HVPA Dragons

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX 4.56Rank 47Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 234.9 ±15.6

3171HURRICANES

Season APEX 74.6Event APEX 49.84Rank 53Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 86

7903Tigers

Season APEX 38.8Event APEX -14.61Rank 59Record 0-8-0Status establishedConfidence 88

7605ASTRO

Season APEX 121.5Event APEX 41.9Rank 28Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9545, 10413, 7718

/ 100 compat

Projected

224.1 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9545, 10413, 7718

Auto

28.4 13%

Teleop

125.0 58%

Endgame

62.1 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3171, 7903, 7605

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.1 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 3171, 7903, 7605

Auto

22.7 28%

Teleop

35.1 43%

Endgame

24.3 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.44 · Blue 0.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score224.1pts

Blue projected score77.1pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 146.9
Score range: 36–265
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 193 vs event baseline 229.2.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

436.3Season APEX234.9

28.4Auto22.7

125Teleop35.1

62.1Endgame24.3

43Consistency54

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	23
teleop	87	7
endgame	23	0
foul	15	0
total	163	30

Result

Final score

163 – 30

Prediction correct · off by 54.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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