Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

493.14 – 353.4

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

712 – 349

Prediction correct · off by 111.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 809.7 ±10.5

870TEAM R. I. C. E.

Season APEX 291.3Event APEX 197.46Rank 4Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

263Aftershock

Season APEX 175.6Event APEX 41.91Rank 41Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1796RoboTigers

Season APEX 342.8Event APEX 253.77Rank 1Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 551.4 ±11.7

6436NARBULUT PARS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 221.2Event APEX 125Rank 10Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9545Caracal Robotics

Season APEX 192.5Event APEX 116.74Rank 11Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10202NOVATRON

Season APEX 137.7Event APEX 111.66Rank 25Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 870, 263, 1796

/ 100 compat

Projected

493.1 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 870, 263, 1796

Auto

114.4 23%

Teleop

276.5 57%

Endgame

98.3 20%

Strengths

· 1796 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6436, 9545, 10202

/ 100 compat

Projected

353.4 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 6436, 9545, 10202

Auto

53.4 15%

Teleop

189.1 55%

Endgame

102.3 30%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.42 · Blue 0.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score493.1pts

Blue projected score353.4pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 139.7
Score range: 312–534
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1061 vs event baseline 226.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

809.7Season APEX551.4

114.4Auto53.4

276.5Teleop189.1

98.3Endgame102.3

6Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	140	60
teleop	395	199
endgame	162	85
foul	15	5
total	712	349

Result

Final score

712 – 349

Prediction correct · off by 111.6 pts

Match videos

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