Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

183.68 – 129.88

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

175 – 149

Prediction correct · off by 13.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 516.6 ±11

10262Bionic Buzzers

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 72.77Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4122Ossining OBOTS

Season APEX 233.2Event APEX 57.62Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6911SO BOTZ

Season APEX 186.2Event APEX 53.29Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 361.7 ±11

7611Amal Hawks Robotics

Season APEX 87Event APEX 47.6Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3419RoHawks

Season APEX 153.4Event APEX 56.01Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1155SciBorgs

Season APEX 121.3Event APEX 26.27Rank 28Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10262, 4122, 6911

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.7 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10262, 4122, 6911

Auto

28.7 17%

Teleop

102.6 59%

Endgame

41.7 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7611, 3419, 1155

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.9 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 7611, 3419, 1155

Auto

17.3 14%

Teleop

77.7 64%

Endgame

25.6 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.76 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score183.7pts

Blue projected score129.9pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 53.8
Score range: 108–206
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 324 vs event baseline 121.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

516.6Season APEX361.7

28.7Auto17.3

102.6Teleop77.7

41.7Endgame25.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	25
teleop	116	65
endgame	24	54
foul	10	5
total	175	149

Result

Final score

175 – 149

Prediction correct · off by 13.9 pts

Match videos

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