Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

237.34 – 151.64

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

254 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 25.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 513.4 ±11.7

2053Southern Tier Robotics

Season APEX 197.3Event APEX 111.94Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10413Flux Robotics

Season APEX 154.9Event APEX 45.96Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10922Amped

Season APEX 161.2Event APEX 79.44Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 376.8 ±12.8

333MEGALODONS

Season APEX 117.3Event APEX 35.91Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6621Artemis

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 48.39Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9077The Crown

Season APEX 137.6Event APEX 67.34Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2053, 10413, 10922

/ 100 compat

Projected

237.3 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 2053, 10413, 10922

Auto

23.3 10%

Teleop

145.4 63%

Endgame

61.8 27%

Strengths

· 2053 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 333, 6621, 9077

/ 100 compat

Projected

151.6 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 333, 6621, 9077

Auto

24.1 17%

Teleop

85.4 61%

Endgame

29.8 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.01 · Blue 0.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score237.3pts

Blue projected score151.6pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 85.7
Score range: 130–259
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 372 vs event baseline 120.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

513.4Season APEX376.8

23.3Auto24.1

145.4Teleop85.4

61.8Endgame29.8

10Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	37
teleop	145	31
endgame	53	50
foul	10	0
total	254	118

Result

Final score

254 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 25.1 pts

Match videos

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