Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

139.19 – 117.06

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

187 – 119

Prediction correct · off by 24.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 312.6 ±14.5

639Code Red Robotics

Season APEX 69.4Event APEX 19.18Rank 18Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

7504CyBearBots

Season APEX 128.6Event APEX 56.59Rank 14Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 92

6593HyperDrive Robotics

Season APEX 114.6Event APEX 63.42Rank 11Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 270.8 ±14.5

2265Fe Maidens

Season APEX 95.2Event APEX 23.36Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6300The Northwoodians

Season APEX 82.3Event APEX 31.91Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

1056Hot Rocks

Season APEX 93.3Event APEX 61.79Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 639, 7504, 6593

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.2 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 639, 7504, 6593

Auto

19.5 14%

Teleop

88.3 64%

Endgame

31.2 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2265, 6300, 1056

/ 100 compat

Projected

117.1 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 2265, 6300, 1056

Auto

22.3 19%

Teleop

61.4 53%

Endgame

31.6 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.52 · Blue 1.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score139.2pts

Blue projected score117.1pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 22.1
Score range: 96–160
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 306 vs event baseline 116.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

312.6Season APEX270.8

19.5Auto22.3

88.3Teleop61.4

31.2Endgame31.6

16Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	37
teleop	98	48
endgame	49	14
foul	15	20
total	187	119

Result

Final score

187 – 119

Prediction correct · off by 24.9 pts

Match videos

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