Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

243.26 – 86.46

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

230 – 101

Prediction correct · off by 13.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 513.4 ±11.7

2053Southern Tier Robotics

Season APEX 197.3Event APEX 114.39Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10413Flux Robotics

Season APEX 154.9Event APEX 48.61Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10922Amped

Season APEX 161.2Event APEX 80.26Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 392.6 ±13.9

5881TVHS Dragons

Season APEX 90.8Event APEX 4.59Rank 10Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2601Steel Hawks

Season APEX 217.2Event APEX 50.05Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7748TECHTOLIA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 84.6Event APEX 31.82Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2053, 10413, 10922

/ 100 compat

Projected

243.3 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 2053, 10413, 10922

Auto

28.7 12%

Teleop

149.0 62%

Endgame

61.1 26%

Strengths

· 2053 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5881, 2601, 7748

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.5 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 5881, 2601, 7748

Auto

7.4 9%

Teleop

50.2 62%

Endgame

22.8 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.27 · Blue 0.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score243.3pts

Blue projected score86.5pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 156.8
Score range: 65–264
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 331 vs event baseline 114.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

513.4Season APEX392.6

28.7Auto7.4

149Teleop50.2

61.1Endgame22.8

1Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	8
teleop	136	61
endgame	66	32
foul	15	0
total	230	101

Result

Final score

230 – 101

Prediction correct · off by 13.9 pts

Match videos

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