Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

165.6 – 131.86

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

200 – 75

Prediction correct · off by 45.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 516.6 ±11

10262Bionic Buzzers

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 68.79Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4122Ossining OBOTS

Season APEX 233.2Event APEX 50.92Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6911SO BOTZ

Season APEX 186.2Event APEX 45.89Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 270.8 ±14.5

1056Hot Rocks

Season APEX 93.3Event APEX 67.13Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

6300The Northwoodians

Season APEX 82.3Event APEX 36.43Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2265Fe Maidens

Season APEX 95.2Event APEX 28.3Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10262, 4122, 6911

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.6 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 10262, 4122, 6911

Auto

27.9 18%

Teleop

87.3 55%

Endgame

43.5 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1056, 6300, 2265

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.9 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 1056, 6300, 2265

Auto

22.4 17%

Teleop

70.4 54%

Endgame

36.4 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.65 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score165.6pts

Blue projected score131.9pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 33.7
Score range: 112–186
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 275 vs event baseline 113.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

516.6Season APEX270.8

27.9Auto22.4

87.3Teleop70.4

43.5Endgame36.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	22
teleop	115	33
endgame	19	20
foul	35	0
total	200	75

Result

Final score

200 – 75

Prediction correct · off by 45.6 pts

Match videos

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