Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
369.55 – 137.95
95%5%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
398 – 143
Prediction correct · off by 16.8 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 706.2 ±10.5
Season APEX 145.5Event APEX 27.57Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 217.9Event APEX 150.95Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 342.8Event APEX 191.03Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 312.6 ±14.5
Season APEX 69.4Event APEX 18.69Rank 18Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94
Season APEX 128.6Event APEX 56.51Rank 14Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 92
Season APEX 114.6Event APEX 62.75Rank 11Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 10229, 10213, 1796
80
/ 100 compatProjected
369.5 pts
~2.4 RP (regional)
Teams: 10229, 10213, 1796
Auto
70.0 20%
Teleop
206.3 60%
Endgame
67.3 20%
Strengths
- · 1796 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 47%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 639, 7504, 6593
66
/ 100 compatProjected
138 pts
~0.5 RP (regional)
Teams: 639, 7504, 6593
Auto
19.9 14%
Teleop
89.3 65%
Endgame
28.2 21%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 47%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.41 · Blue 0.49
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score369.5pts
Blue projected score138pts
Red win probability95%
Event bonus sample190alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 47%, blue 34%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 231.6
- Score range
- 117–391
- Upset likelihood
- 5%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-16
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
706.2Season APEX312.6
70Auto19.9
206.3Teleop89.3
67.3Endgame28.2
43Consistency13
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 90 | 21 |
| teleop | 203 | 81 |
| endgame | 100 | 41 |
| foul | 5 | 0 |
| total | 398 | 143 |
Result
Final score
398 – 143
Prediction correct · off by 16.8 pts
Match videos
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