Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

139.79 – 183.64

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

141 – 221

Prediction correct · off by 19.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 376.8 ±12.8

333MEGALODONS

Season APEX 117.3Event APEX 32.35Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6621Artemis

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 44.82Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9077The Crown

Season APEX 137.6Event APEX 62.62Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 516.6 ±11

10262Bionic Buzzers

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 72.59Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4122Ossining OBOTS

Season APEX 233.2Event APEX 57.81Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6911SO BOTZ

Season APEX 186.2Event APEX 53.24Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 333, 6621, 9077

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.8 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 333, 6621, 9077

Auto

28.8 22%

Teleop

70.2 53%

Endgame

32.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10262, 4122, 6911

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.6 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 10262, 4122, 6911

Auto

27.7 16%

Teleop

106.1 61%

Endgame

39.2 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.12 · Blue 1.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score139.8pts

Blue projected score183.6pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -43.8
Score range: 118–206
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 362 vs event baseline 122.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

376.8Season APEX516.6

28.8Auto27.7

70.2Teleop106.1

32.7Endgame39.2

36Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	35
teleop	65	138
endgame	56	38
foul	0	10
total	141	221

Result

Final score

141 – 221

Prediction correct · off by 19.3 pts

Match videos

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