Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

400.73 – 241.39

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

363 – 179

Prediction correct · off by 50.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 706.2 ±10.5

10229Event Horizon

Season APEX 145.5Event APEX 37.62Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10213BALTA

Season APEX 217.9Event APEX 161.71Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1796RoboTigers

Season APEX 342.8Event APEX 201.4Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 513.4 ±11.7

2053Southern Tier Robotics

Season APEX 197.3Event APEX 112.67Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10922Amped

Season APEX 161.2Event APEX 80.9Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10413Flux Robotics

Season APEX 154.9Event APEX 47.82Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10229, 10213, 1796

/ 100 compat

Projected

400.7 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 10229, 10213, 1796

Auto

77.4 20%

Teleop

225.8 59%

Endgame

79.2 21%

Strengths

· 1796 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2053, 10922, 10413

/ 100 compat

Projected

241.4 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 2053, 10922, 10413

Auto

27.6 12%

Teleop

146.2 63%

Endgame

59.9 26%

Strengths

· 2053 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.28 · Blue 0.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score400.7pts

Blue projected score241.4pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 159.3
Score range: 219–423
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 542 vs event baseline 121.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

706.2Season APEX513.4

77.4Auto27.6

225.8Teleop146.2

79.2Endgame59.9

0Consistency9

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	90	39
teleop	163	63
endgame	70	72
foul	40	5
total	363	179

Result

Final score

363 – 179

Prediction correct · off by 50.1 pts

Match videos

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