Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
144.91 – 146.8
49%51%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
108 – 90
Prediction missed · off by 46.9 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 376.8 ±12.8
Season APEX 117.3Event APEX 33.75Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 46.37Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 137.6Event APEX 64.79Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 312.6 ±14.5
Season APEX 69.4Event APEX 22.13Rank 18Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94
Season APEX 128.6Event APEX 58.2Rank 14Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 92
Season APEX 114.6Event APEX 66.47Rank 11Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 333, 6621, 9077
70
/ 100 compatProjected
144.9 pts
~1.4 RP (regional)
Teams: 333, 6621, 9077
Auto
26.6 20%
Teleop
74.4 55%
Endgame
34.1 25%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 35%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 639, 7504, 6593
67
/ 100 compatProjected
146.8 pts
~1.4 RP (regional)
Teams: 639, 7504, 6593
Auto
20.0 14%
Teleop
89.4 62%
Endgame
34.0 24%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 35%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.37 · Blue 1.4
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score144.9pts
Blue projected score146.8pts
Red win probability49%
Event bonus sample190alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 35%, blue 34%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -1.9
- Score range
- 123–169
- Upset likelihood
- 49%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-17
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
376.8Season APEX312.6
26.6Auto20
74.4Teleop89.4
34.1Endgame34
28Consistency14
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 41 | 29 |
| teleop | 43 | 57 |
| endgame | 24 | 4 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 108 | 90 |
Result
Final score
108 – 90
Prediction missed · off by 46.9 pts
Match videos
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