Qualification · Qualification 80

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

32.66 – 152.02

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

55 – 178

Prediction correct · off by 24.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 307.5 ±14.5

10229Event Horizon

Season APEX 145.5Event APEX 26.49Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7718HVPA Dragons

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX -1.14Rank 42Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

3952 Train Robotics

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 7.31Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 312.2 ±15.6

6593HyperDrive Robotics

Season APEX 114.6Event APEX 60.77Rank 11Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 97

7318Nanuet Knightronz

Provisional

Season APEX 36.4Event APEX 14.16Rank 44Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10922Amped

Season APEX 161.2Event APEX 77.09Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10229, 7718, 395

/ 100 compat

Projected

32.7 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 10229, 7718, 395

Auto

5.1 21%

Teleop

9.5 39%

Endgame

9.8 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6593, 7318, 10922

/ 100 compat

Projected

152 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 6593, 7318, 10922

Auto

19.7 13%

Teleop

98.3 65%

Endgame

33.3 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.71 · Blue 2.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score32.7pts

Blue projected score152pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -119.4
Score range: 13–172
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 233 vs event baseline 113.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

307.5Season APEX312.2

5.1Auto19.7

9.5Teleop98.3

9.8Endgame33.3

24Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	36
teleop	23	92
endgame	10	45
foul	0	5
total	55	178

Result

Final score

55 – 178

Prediction correct · off by 24.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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