Qualification · Qualification 77
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
99.34 – 11.92
75%25%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
200 – 26
Prediction correct · off by 57.4 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 319.9 ±14.5
Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 41.73Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 128.6Event APEX 48.32Rank 14Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 92
Season APEX 69.4Event APEX 9.29Rank 18Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 153.3 ±15.6
Season APEX 42.7Event APEX -2.67Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88
Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 17.48Rank 43Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88
Season APEX 27Event APEX -2.89Rank 41Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 6621, 7504, 639
53
/ 100 compatProjected
99.3 pts
~1.9 RP (regional)
Teams: 6621, 7504, 639
Auto
16.9 17%
Teleop
61.0 62%
Endgame
20.0 20%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 33%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 7668, 3004, 10452
5
/ 100 compatProjected
11.9 pts
~0.8 RP (regional)
Teams: 7668, 3004, 10452
Auto
14.1 100%
Teleop
-7.8 0%
Endgame
6.0 49%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 33%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.87 · Blue 0.78
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score99.3pts
Blue projected score11.9pts
Red win probability75%
Event bonus sample190alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 33%, blue 24%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 87.4
- Score range
- -9–120
- Upset likelihood
- 25%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
319.9Season APEX153.3
16.9Auto14.1
61Teleop-7.8
20Endgame6
30Consistency16
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 22 | 16 |
| teleop | 142 | 4 |
| endgame | 36 | 1 |
| foul | 0 | 5 |
| total | 200 | 26 |
Result
Final score
200 – 26
Prediction correct · off by 57.4 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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