Qualification · Qualification 74

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

50.09 – 242.15

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

216 – 310

Prediction correct · off by 116.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 467.6 ±14.7

11331TarryBots

Provisional

Season APEX 48.2Event APEX -16.78Rank 19Record 6-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4122Ossining OBOTS

Season APEX 233.2Event APEX 35.08Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6911SO BOTZ

Season APEX 186.2Event APEX 31.79Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 476.4 ±15.8

6300The Northwoodians

Season APEX 82.3Event APEX 33Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

1796RoboTigers

Season APEX 342.8Event APEX 184.81Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7589Lishan Blue Magpie

Provisional

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 24.34Rank 45Record 1-8-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11331, 4122, 6911

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.1 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 11331, 4122, 6911

Auto

26.2 56%

Teleop

18.9 40%

Endgame

1.8 4%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6300, 1796, 7589

/ 100 compat

Projected

242.2 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 6300, 1796, 7589

Auto

43.0 19%

Teleop

137.5 60%

Endgame

49.7 22%

Strengths

· 1796 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.58 · Blue 2.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score50.1pts

Blue projected score242.2pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -192.1
Score range: 30–262
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 526 vs event baseline 111.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

467.6Season APEX476.4

26.2Auto43

18.9Teleop137.5

1.8Endgame49.7

6Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	69
teleop	126	168
endgame	45	73
foul	10	0
total	216	310

Result

Final score

216 – 310

Prediction correct · off by 116.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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