Qualification · Qualification 72

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 89.14

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

114 – 92

Prediction missed · off by 58.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 169.9 ±17.5

7318Nanuet Knightronz

Provisional

Season APEX 36.4Event APEX 3.52Rank 44Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5881TVHS Dragons

Season APEX 90.8Event APEX -8.21Rank 10Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 91

7668GatorBots

Season APEX 42.7Event APEX -12.34Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 281.4 ±17.5

3004Bx Quixote

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 17.52Rank 43Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

4091DRIFT

Provisional

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 37.02Rank 20Record 6-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2791Shaker Robotics

Season APEX 152Event APEX 34.6Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7318, 5881, 7668

/ 100 compat

Projected

-17 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 7318, 5881, 7668

Auto

7.5 0%

Teleop

-19.7 100%

Endgame

-6.8 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3004, 4091, 2791

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.1 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 3004, 4091, 2791

Auto

18.2 20%

Teleop

47.2 51%

Endgame

27.4 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.69 · Blue 1.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score-17pts

Blue projected score89.1pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -89.1
Score range: -20–109
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 206 vs event baseline 110.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

169.9Season APEX281.4

7.5Auto18.2

-19.7Teleop47.2

-6.8Endgame27.4

97Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	21
teleop	56	57
endgame	35	14
foul	15	0
total	114	92

Result

Final score

114 – 92

Prediction missed · off by 58.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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