Qualification · Qualification 71

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

94.01 – 120.44

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

149 – 51

Prediction missed · off by 62.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 312.1 ±12.7

10229Event Horizon

Season APEX 145.5Event APEX 26.99Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

639Code Red Robotics

Season APEX 69.4Event APEX 6.41Rank 18Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

10262Bionic Buzzers

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 60.61Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 321.5 ±14.1

7730uNReal

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 34.23Rank 39Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

3204Steampunk Penguins

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 1.28Rank 47Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

10922Amped

Season APEX 161.2Event APEX 84.93Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10229, 639, 10262

/ 100 compat

Projected

94 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 10229, 639, 10262

Auto

7.8 9%

Teleop

47.2 56%

Endgame

28.7 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7730, 3204, 10922

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.4 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 7730, 3204, 10922

Auto

12.6 10%

Teleop

83.1 69%

Endgame

25.6 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.23 · Blue 1.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score94pts

Blue projected score120.4pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -26.4
Score range: 74–140
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 200 vs event baseline 110.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

312.1Season APEX321.5

7.8Auto12.6

47.2Teleop83.1

28.7Endgame25.6

48Consistency67

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	15
teleop	87	31
endgame	46	0
foul	10	5
total	149	51

Result

Final score

149 – 51

Prediction missed · off by 62.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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